Transport Sector Bulletin - Issue 02 - Q4 2026

The subsidy has gone. The diesel price did not go with it.

For lenders, credit and portfolio teams

Fuel relief has ended, diesel has not come back down and the pass-through rules have been in flux, so neither the September nor the December quarter shows a transport borrower's true run-rate. This bulletin sets out how to read the numbers, where the stress reaches the collateral, and what to ask for now.

Rebound AdvisoryOctober 20266 pagesDownload PDF

Authors: Brendan Richards and Claire Gaffney

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At a glance

57%

rise in retail diesel since 20 February, the step that stays

176.6c to 276.6c. No relief applied at either end, so it is a like for like comparison.

36%

of the September quarter still carried partial fuel relief

33 days of 92. Strip it out and the forward run-rate is worse than the quarter reports.

836

transport, postal and warehousing external administrations, year to September 2026

Against 495 appointments in FY2023-24. Sixth highest of any industry.

In this issue

01Neither quarter is the run-rate

02The pass-through

03What it does to a lending book

04Four exits, what safe harbour does and does not permit, and six questions for a file that will not recover.

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